The constitutional question has often dominated political debate in Scotland. Top lines in past election cycles have relied on voters’ beliefs as to whether Scotland should leave or remain part of the United Kingdom.
Support for independence has never been so consistently high in opinion polls, consistently sitting just above 50%, and yet no one seems to be talking about it. In 2012, the year the referendum was announced, a good poll for independence supporters would have been about 35%.
“Independence is an issue that isn’t going to go away.”
We’re going into an election cycle where independence feels like a very different argument than in previous elections. Since 2014, almost every election has felt as if the constitutional question was on the line. But this year that doesn’t seem to be the case.
The top 5 issues for Scottish voters, according to a February survey conducted by Savanta, are: the cost of living; health, social care and the NHS; the economy; immigration; and housing.
Not independence.
In fact, the same survey suggested that only 1 in 8 Scottish voters placed independence in their top three issues. Is it simply the case that people are tired of voting on the independence line? Or is the fact that we are living through a time of global and economic instability making the thought of constitutional change seem laughable (or at least unwise, for now)?
The SNP, of course, is campaigning for independence, and the first line on their manifesto is to vote SNP for another independence referendum. A majority of seats in parliament, which is not totally out of the question, would be their mandate for independence, but the desire and hunger for an independence referendum, even from some of their most prominent campaign figures, feels just that little bit squalid. There is no impassioned movement, no sense that this election could be the final chance to secure independence. Just that if the SNP get a majority, it might, possibly, happen at some point – although not if Wes Streeting has anything to say about it.
The Conservatives are also campaigning on their usual line… that only a vote for the Conservatives can stop an SNP majority. Never has this felt farther from the truth… in fact the Conservatives have never felt less relevant… at all. Some projections have seen them falling from the second largest to the very smallest party in parliament… possibly on less than ten seats. Not exactly the fortified wall standing up to the independence movement, that some Conservatives might yearn for. Russell Findlay himself seems more or less happy to put out his party’s usual line:
“Independence is an issue that isn’t going to go away, despite the fact that polling shows that the average person doesn’t regard it as a serious issue. I represent the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. We believe on the basis of evidence that Scotland is best served as a member of the United Kingdom. I think it would be complacent from me as a politician to think that there’s no risk from the SNP continuing to push that after the election”.
Perhaps he knows that there isn’t much he can do, bar begging for regional votes. No one wants to listen to the Conservatives at the moment, and if his party does as badly as has been projected then he might be looking for a new job anyway.
“Decisions should be made as locally as possible, so we believe in de-centralisation so that leads us to a position on independence.”
The Labour Party have distanced themselves from Westminster, even removing party logos and mentions from their campaign events. They’re almost ashamed to call themselves Labour politicians… although with the unpopularity that Starmer’s Westminster government currently has, it’s hard to blame them. Anas Sarwar has been sure to mention at every opportunity is that his country is Scotland, is an odd thing to say for a Scottish politician for whom one might take that as a given. Labour is attempting (not very well) to encourage independence supporters to prioritise devolved policy, and back a fresh face in government, but they’re doing so with no mention of independence itself.
The Scottish Greens have had an unprecedented boost in recent months, no doubt helped by the mega impact of Zack Polaski’s movement in the England and Wales Party. (Most voters are probably unaware that the parties are separate, and from the point of view of the wider movement this doesn’t really matter). Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay have both been engaging with new voters on the campaign trail, and the most neutral of onlookers would be unable to deny Greer’s clear aptitude and likability on a personal level during the first TV debate. They have mentioned independence a few times through the campaign, but less so than in previous campaigns. And, with Polanski doing so well in Westminster, the current situation seems alright for them – with independence on a to-do list down the line.
Maggie Chapman from the Greens said.
“Decisions should be made as locally as possible, so we believe in de-centralisation so that leads us to a position on independence. I think the fact that cost-of-living is number one on people’s concerns, there is an argument in there that we don’t have all the macro-economic powers in Scotland that we might wish to have in order to do some of the things to transform our economy. But that kind of stays in the background for us as Greens anyway”.
The Liberal Democrats claim that it isn’t even a major issue. At the first debate, their leader, Alex Cole-Hamilton, said that he hadn’t spent long thinking about it (though, in fairness, their campaign is centred on local issues anyway, focusing on farmers, ferries and healthcare. You would also be very lucky if you hadn’t heard Cole-Hamilton mention the peach coloured ballot paper at least several times during the campaign so far.
He said to Impulse:
“Almost everyone in Scotland will have an opinion on breaking up the UK, but both the opinion polls and everything we are hearing on the doorsteps shows that when it comes to voting, people are far more concerned about everyday issues — the crisis in our NHS and social care, falling educational standards, the ferries fiasco and the cost of living, to name just a few. That’s where Scottish Liberal Democrats will be focusing our efforts”.
Reform UK… it’s hard to tell with them. Nigel Farage recently claimed that the party was not in contention to win the election this time around, much to the clear frustrations of Malcolm Offord. The party’s leader himself has only ruled out an independence referendum for the next decade and claims that he wants Scotland to be the most successful part of the United Kingdom. Nigel Farage has claimed in the past that England is treated badly within the United Kingdom, so perhaps we’ll see an English independence referendum before a Scottish one. In short no one is quite sure about Reform’s independence policy and it may change over the next parliamentary term.
For now, independence doesn’t feel as if it is within touching distance for its supporters. Nor is it out of the question. But this election feels as if it is a bit of a lull in the long story of the movement. Perhaps, if the SNP can get their much-desired majority, things will change. That is a big if… but never say never.
